Youyang Gu

Data Scientist

Six Months Later

September 28th, 2020

It's been six months since I made my first COVID-19 projections. What started as a small side project became a months long endeavor. 180 days and 180 forecasts later, the pandemic shows no signs of abating as we head towards winter. When I started, there were only a handful of existing models, and very few of them were accurate. Now, there are over 30 models on the CDC Forecasting page. A lot of great progress has been made in the modeling space over the past six months, and I hope others will get to better know these other models in the months to come. After much consideration, I have come to the difficult decision to not extend my projections beyond November 1, 2020. I plan to make the last forecast update to on Monday, October 5. This was undoubtedly a tough choice for me, and I hope to convey my thoughts in this post...

Continue Reading

September 23rd, 2020

Welcome to my new personal website. Please visit my current project, We present an intuitive model that builds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make COVID-19 infections and deaths projections for the US, all 50 US states, and more than 70 countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for more than 95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths...

Continue Reading