covid19-projections.com

September 23rd, 2020

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning: covid19-projections.com.

We present an intuitive model that builds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make COVID-19 infections and deaths projections for the US, all 50 US states, and more than 70 countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for more than 95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths.

Stay tuned for more as I work on expanding this page. In the meantime, see below for some useful links:

• Model Details - More in-depth description of how our model works.
• Estimating True Infections - Our findings regarding the relationship between true infections, reported cases, test positivity rate, and infection fatality rate for COVID-19.
• Youyang Gu August 13 Talk - My presentation about the model
• Twitter Threads - Comprehensive list of threads I’ve posted on Twitter

GitHub Repositories

We have three public GitHub repositories:

• Projections Data and Website - Contains all model output data. Also contains the website source code (in the gh-pages branch).
• SEIR Simulator - The SEIR simulator behind our model. Learn more in our Model Details page.
• Model Evaluations - The full source code to replicate our model evaluations.

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